🟢 Live Market Snapshot · U.S. Session 2026-10-29 (After-Hours)

2026-10-29 16:37:46 US Eastern Time (EDT) · Feed: U.S. Real-Time Composite

QQQ (Nasdaq-100)

715.34

-1.42%

VIX (Volatility Index)

17.19

+1.72%

SMH (Semiconductors)

561.67

-1.06%

Intraday Tilt: QQQ is +5.3% above SMA200 (679) · VIX 17.2 (Calm)

Live quotes are for intraday reference only. The official Traffic Light below is strictly confirmed on completed U.S. daily closes.

● Data Fresh · Includes Latest Completed U.S. Session

Signal Benchmark Date: 2026-10-29 (Latest Completed U.S. Session)

Risk Score: 28/100

Historical Fit: 1/7

Confidence: HIGH

Updated: 2026-10-29 16:37 US Eastern Time (EDT)

🕘 This signal is strictly anchored to the latest completed U.S. trading session (2026-10-29). Regular U.S. equity trading hours are 09:30–16:00 US Eastern Time (EST/EDT); full end-of-day confirmation updates automatically after 16:30 US Eastern Time.

Regime Context Note: Early bull-to-bear transition risk is elevated. Historically, this regime reflects overlapping wide-range volatility where breakout follow-through weakens and high-beta or leveraged exposure faces heightened drawdown sensitivity prior to secondary trend confirmation.

QQQ Latest Close

715.34

Drawdown: -5.83%

VIX Volatility Index

17.20

vs. 20D SMA: 1.02x

Distance to SMA200 (Regime Line)

+5.33%

SMA200: 679.16

Distribution Days (25D)

Up/Down Vol Ratio: 0.14

QQQ Daily Price Action & Key Regime Levels

Regime Definitions (Standard Three States)

🟢 GREEN LIGHT (Offense / Trend Expansion)

Broad index trend structure and institutional breadth remain supportive.

🟡 YELLOW LIGHT (Wide-Range Chop / Transition Caution)

Elevated volatility or distribution pressure detected; historically associated with higher breakout failure rates.

🔴 RED LIGHT (Capital Defense / Preservation)

Key structural support broken and defensive regime criteria triggered.

Strict Operational Boundaries (What Traffic Light Does NOT Do)

No Individual Stock Picks or Buy/Sell Execution Signals. The dashboard exclusively monitors broad index regime health and macro risk posture.
No Intraday Scalping Alerts or Automated Broker Execution. All regime signals evaluate confirmed, end-of-day market conditions for disciplined swing-to-macro positioning.
No AI Price Predictions or Guaranteed Return Promises. Signals are derived from transparent, rule-based quantitative criteria rather than opaque predictive black-boxes.

QQQ / VIX Bull-Bear Regime Detection Report — 2026-10-29

Executive Summary

Official Regime: YELLOW LIGHT (Caution / Early Transition Risk) | Risk Score: 28/100 | Historical Fit: 1/7 | Confidence: HIGH.

Data Source Status

Official Regime Basis: Validated U.S. End-of-Day Consolidated Daily Closes.
Latest Completed U.S. Trading Session: 2026-10-29
Update Schedule: Confirmed automatically after U.S. cash equity market close (16:30 US Eastern Time).

Core Technical & Volatility Metrics

Metric	Value
QQQ Close (as_of)	715.34
QQQ 252-Day Closing High	759.66
QQQ 252-Day Intraday High	762.86
Drawdown from 252D Closing High	-5.83%
Drawdown from 252D Intraday High	-6.23%
QQQ 20-Day Return	-3.6%
QQQ SMA50 / SMA200	725.41 / 679.16
Distance vs. SMA200	5.33%
Consecutive Days Below SMA200	0
VIX / VIX 20-Day SMA	17.2 / 16.79
VIX3M (3-Month Implied Vol)	19.37
VIX - VIX3M Term Spread	-2.17
VIX / VIX3M Term Structure Inverted	No
SMH Close	561.67
SMH 1-Day Return	-1.06%
SMH 20-Day Return	-9.09%
SMH vs. QQQ 20-Day Relative Strength Gap	-5.49pp

Institutional Money Flow (O'Neil / Wyckoff):

Metric	Value
Distribution Days (25D, Fitted Model)	6
Distribution Days (25D, O'Neil Classic)	8
Up / Down Volume Ratio (25D)	0.145
OBV Price-Volume Bearish Divergence (20D)	Yes
High-Volume Churn / Stalling Days (10D)	0
Follow-Through Day (FTD) Detected	No

Condition Checklist

Not Triggered: Drawdown >= 15% (-5.83%)
Not Triggered: Drawdown >= 20% (-5.83%)
Not Triggered: >= 3 Consecutive Closes Below SMA200 (Current: 0d)
Not Triggered: >= 10 Consecutive Closes Below SMA200 (Fitted Tier) (Current: 0d)
Not Triggered: 20-Day Return <= -10% (-3.6%)
TRIGGERED: Distribution Days >= 5 in 25D (Fitted Tier) (Current: 6d)
Not Triggered: VIX >= 28 (Current: 17.2)
Not Triggered: VIX >= 1.1x 20-Day Average (Current: 1.024x)
Not Triggered: VIX > VIX3M Term Inversion (Spread: -2.17)
Not Triggered: 63-Day Closing Low
Not Triggered: Death Cross: SMA50 < SMA200 (Lagging Confirmation)
TRIGGERED: SMH Lagging QQQ by <= -5pp over 20D (-5.49pp)
TRIGGERED: Up/Down Volume Ratio < 0.80 (Supply Dominance) (0.145)
Not Triggered: High-Volume Shock Day in Last 3 Sessions (<= -3.5% on >1.5x Vol)

Triggered Conditions:

YELLOW: below SMA50, above SMA200
YELLOW: SMH lagging QQQ by -5.5pp over 20d
YELLOW: 6 distribution days in 25d (supply pressure)
YELLOW: up/down volume ratio 0.14 < 0.8

Educational Regime Context (Non-Advisory)

Breakout Environment: Historically associated with elevated whipsaw risk and lower follow-through rates in wide-range chop.
Mean-Reversion Dynamics: Premature bottom-fishing historically faces elevated secondary downside before structural trend stabilization.
Exposure & Volatility Sensitivity: Historically associated with conservative exposure management; high-beta and leveraged instruments carry asymmetric drawdown sensitivity during distribution phases.
Capital Preservation Focus: Regimes in transition historically reward patience and waiting for objective secondary trend confirmation.

Next Key Watch Levels

QQQ -15% Drawdown Level (Closing Basis): 645.71 (Intraday High Basis: 648.43)
QQQ -20% Drawdown Level (Closing Basis): 607.73 (Intraday High Basis: 610.29)
SMA200 (Bull/Bear Dividing Line): 679.16
VIX Red-Alert Threshold: 28 (Current: 17.2)
VIX / VIX3M Term Inversion Active: No

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